2025년 베트남 반도체 산업 전망
2025년 05월 14일
2025년 베트남 금융시장과 핀테크 트렌드
2025년 06월 03일Vietnam Financial Market Trend
From 2022 to 2025, Vietnam's financial market will maintain a stable flow by harmonizing relatively strong growth, price stability, and an accommodative monetary policy despite external uncertainties such as a global economic slowdown, a high interest rate trend, and supply chain restructuring. Real GDP surged to 8.12% in 2022 due to the base effect of pandemic recovery and brisk exports. Still, it slowed to 5.05% in 2023 due to a decrease in global demand and a slowdown in the semiconductor and electronics industries.
However, thanks to the government's proactive economic response measures, increased FDI inflow, and recovery in domestic demand, it is expected to recover to 7.09% in 2024 and 6.93% in 2025, proving its mid- to long-term growth potential.
The inflation rate (CPI) remained relatively low at 3.16% in 2022 and 3.25% in 2023, and is expected to reach 2.94% in 2024 and 3.13% as of March 2025, stably achieving the government target (4.5% or less). This is analyzed as the effect of policy responses such as stabilizing food and energy prices, normalizing the supply chain, and managing the money supply. In particular, the Vietnamese government is implementing flexible price controls and suppressing public utility rate increases to suppress inflation while maintaining growth momentum.
The Central Bank (SBV) has gradually adjusted its monetary policy in line with these macroeconomic trends. In 2022, it adopted a tightening policy by raising the base rate (refinancing rate) to 6.00%, but in 2023, considering the slowdown in growth, it lowered the rate three times, finally reaching 4.50%.
Afterwards, the interest rate was frozen until the first quarter of 2024 and 2025, thereby enhancing the stability and predictability of monetary policy. Along with the easing of corporate financing costs due to the interest rate cut, it had a positive impact on the recovery of domestic consumption and investment, and also contributed to securing the trust of foreign investors.
In summary, the Vietnamese financial market is showing resilience to external shocks by possessing the three elements of high growth potential, stable price flow, and flexible interest rate adjustment. Although variables such as the US-China conflict, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, and the Chinese economic slowdown still exist, Vietnam's macro soundness and policy response ability are evaluated as important foundations that will support the maintenance of financial market stability.
Trends in Vietnam's financial and fintech market over the past 3 years
Vietnam Fintech Trends
From 2022 to 2025, Vietnam's fintech industry is growing explosively. In particular, it is showing remarkable performance in the fields of simple payment, P2P lending, and virtual assets, which are the three main pillars of Vietnam's digital financial market. Mobile payment transaction volume is expected to start at 226 billion USD in 2022 and increase to about 475.6 billion USD in 2025, thanks to the rapid spread of smartphones and QR code-based payment systems. The government's ‘cashless society’ policy is also supporting this trend.
P2P lending market
The P2P lending market is also growing rapidly. The market size, which was about 570 million USD in 2022, is expected to exceed 440 million USD in 2024 and more than 1.7 billion USD in 2029. As of January 2025, there are about 100 P2P lending companies in Vietnam, most of which are foreign-invested companies.
Vietnam Online P2P Lending App (Source: Vietnam.net)
The Vietnamese government decided to ease regulations on P2P business and conduct P2P lending pilot services for the next two years through Decree No. 94 on April 29, 2025. However, this does not apply to foreign investment companies, so it is expected that the law will be applied first to domestic companies.
P2P lending is expected to improve financial inclusion in the Vietnamese economy in the future by providing small and medium-sized enterprises and individuals who have been excluded from the traditional financial sector with an opportunity to access urgent funds.
However, some contracts between parties involved in the P2P lending model lack transparency and there is no mechanism to monitor the use and management of this type of lending, which may lead to disputes between the parties. Therefore, it seems necessary to establish precise guidelines and specific regulations through future pilot services.
In other words, the Vietnamese P2P lending market is in the stage of ‘unregulated potential’, but it seems that it will gradually move to the stage of ‘maturity within regulation’. In order to achieve sound growth in the market, the introduction of clear and balanced regulations by the government is the most important task.
Virtual Assests
The virtual asset sector is also notable. Vietnam is one of the top countries in terms of global cryptocurrency adoption, recording revenues of approximately $194 million and asset inflows of $120 billion in 2023. The government is planning to pilot an authorized virtual asset exchange in 2025, so future institutional incorporation is also expected. This is a move to establish a regulatory foundation to enhance investor protection and market stability.
Overall, Vietnam’s fintech is accelerating digitalization across payments, lending, and asset management, and the market's young population and high technology acceptance are further driving this. Although there are still challenges such as insufficient regulations, the potential is huge. It is highly likely that Vietnam will further solidify its position as a fintech hub in Southeast Asia in the future.
**This article is based on the original text from the Digital Economy and Finance Institute (DEFI) of the Republic of Korea and was reviewed in Vietnam by Kim Do-yeon of Tech Valley. Please indicate the source when quoting.
